Author : Igwenagu, C. M. and Egemba N.C.
This study analyzed the progression of breast cancer in patients who were in different stages of breast cancer using a multi-state Markov model to analyze the four stages of the disease in Enugu State from 2009 â€“ 2019. The objectives of the study include: to find the probability layout and to ascertain the transition probability matrix of the breast cancer progression across the four stages of the disease, to estimate the prediction and to predict the future structure of the breast cancer progression across the four stages of the disease for 2020, 2021, and 2022.The data used for this study was a secondary data collected from Enugu State University of Science and Technology Teaching Hospital Parklane for a period of 11 years.The R-programming software version 4.1.0 was used to analyze the data. The transition probability matrix of the breast cancer progression and the prediction equation of the breast cancer progression were estimated, the future structure of the breast cancer progression across the four stages of the disease for 2020, 2021, and 2022 were predicted and the sojourn time the patients in the four stages of breast cancer were ascertained. The findings of the study showed that the distribution of breast cancer cases for Stage II is the most commonly reported stage of breast cancer, while Stage IV is the most common less reported stage. Also, the analysis of the sojourn time showed that a Stage II patient remain longer and have 93% chance of progressing to Stage III.
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