Author : Abugu, Micheal.C.

Road traffic accidents place a huge financial burden not only on families of victims but also on society at
large. The aim of this work is to study the trend of road accident in Enugu State from January, 1997 to December, 2010.
Using a univariate time series data collected from the Federal Road Safety Commission (FRSC), Enugu, Enugu State. The
model for the data was found to be y=22.062 + 0.252T. Test for the existence of trend and seasonal variation was
conducted at 0.05 level of significance, and a four years forecast for road accident was made for the year 2012, 2013, 2014
and 2015. It was found that there is no seasonal variation but trend which shows steady increase in Enugu State accident
rate. SPSS package was used in all the statistical analysis done.
Affiliation :
Department of Mathematics/Statistics Enugu State University of Science and Technology, Enugu
Keywords : Forecast, Road Accident, Smoothing, Trend, Variation
Date : Saturday ,31 ,December ,2016

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